Ethiopia continues to grapple with multiple internal conflicts, most notably in the Amhara region. Since early 2023, the federal government’s efforts to dissolve regional security forces have triggered fierce resistance from the Fano militia. Despite a temporary lull in hostilities early this year, renewed clashes between Fano and the Ethiopian National Defense Force in March and April 2025 have led to significant displacement and civilian suffering. A drone strike in mid-April reportedly caused over a hundred civilian deaths in East Gojjam zone, underscoring the enduring instability even after the federal state of emergency officially expired.

In the Tigray region, tensions have resurfaced despite the Pretoria Agreement of late 2022. Recent disputes within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) prompted Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to appoint a new head of the interim administration in April 2025, replacing the previous appointee amid factional splits. Critics argue that excluding Eritrea from earlier peace negotiations has strained Addis Ababa’s relationship with Asmara, raising concerns about renewed border clashes and complicating efforts to maintain a lasting peace in the north.

On the diplomatic front, Ethiopia has made notable strides in repairing ties with regional neighbors. In December 2024, Addis Ababa and Mogadishu reached an agreement to restore bilateral relations, addressing longstanding disagreements over Somaliland’s status and Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea. This thaw was solidified when Somalia’s president paid a surprise visit to Addis Ababa in January 2025, highlighting shared interests in trade, security cooperation, and regional stability in the Horn of Africa.

Domestically, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reform agenda has delivered mixed results. Although his administration has pursued economic liberalization, infrastructure projects, and promises of greater political openness since coming to power in 2018, ongoing intercommunal violence and reports of human rights abuses have tarnished its image. Ahead of the 2026 elections, authorities have been accused of arbitrarily arresting critics and restricting independent media, even as the government touts steady economic growth and moves toward privatization. Observers warn that lasting stability will depend on resolving deep-seated grievances in Amhara and Tigray, ensuring genuine political freedoms at home, and consolidating new partnerships abroad.